After chalk ruled the first weekend of this year’s NCAA Tournament, it left us with a Sweet 16 that should be highly entertaining. Seven remaining coaches have won national titles (including last year’s champion, Kansas), and there’s still five teams left from this year’s strongest conference, the Big East — with the possibility for an all-Big East Final Four still out there.
With that said, it’s time to make some picks on the four games taking place tonight — all of which have the potential to be highly entertaining.
EAST REGION
No. 1 Pittsburgh vs. No. 4 Xavier
Despite their struggles during the first two games of the tournament, most expect Pittsburgh to handle the Atlantic 10′s regular season champions with relative ease tonight, as the 7.5 point spread would indicate. But as ESPN’s Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend.” Xavier may not have quite the same amount of talent as they have in years past, but they still have a very deep and experienced front line, including Derrick Brown, B.J. Raymond and C.J. Anderson, that can more than match up with Pittsburgh’s imposing front line, and that’s before you get to 7-foot freshman Kenny Frease.
The Panthers, however, have a serious advantage at perhaps the most important position on the court – point guard. Levance Fields is a true leader, and always seems to hit the big shot Pittsburgh needs to bail them out, as he did both against East Tennessee State in the first round and against Oklahoma State in the second round. The X-Factor in this game, though, as it is in every game with the Panthers, is center DeJuan Blair. Whenever he finds himself in foul trouble, Pittsburgh loses – as they have each time he’s fouled out this season.
While Sean Miller has twice made the Elite Eight, and Pitt under Jamie Dixon has failed to get past the Sweet 16, it seems like this is the perfect opportunity for the Panthers to break through and make their first regional final since before Ben Howland arrived in Pittsburgh. It’s asking a lot for two freshman (Frease and point guard Terrell Holloway) to go head-to-head with players like Blair and Fields and come out on top, which Xavier will need to win this game.
As an A-10 alum and fan, I know Xavier can win this game, and I expect them to cover the betting line. But I just think Fields will manage to come up with that big shot or two down the stretch, force Holloway into a couple of mistakes, and will his team into the regional final.
The pick: Pittsburgh
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Villanova
The Blue Devils and Wildcats are very similar groups, with perimeter-based offenses and one quality big man (Kyle Singler for Duke, Dante Cunningham for Villanova). However, I think this game will come down to what Duke can’t do very well – defend against players driving to the hoop.
Against Texas, the Blue Devils struggled all game long to stop dribble penetration by the Longhorns, who have no one on the level of players like Scottie Reynolds, Corey Stokes and Corey Fisher on the perimeter. Because of that, I expect Villanova to take it to the basket throughout the game, where they’ll surely try and get Singler in foul trouble, which forces Duke into becoming solely a perimeter team.
The Wildcats can struggle shooting the ball at times, given their guard-oriented offense, which could lead to some opportunities for Duke to take advantage. But, in the end, despite all of Mike Krzyzewski’s talk about the ACC being the country’s best conference all season long, he will be proven wrong on the court tonight by the Big East’s fourth-best team in the regular season.
The pick: Villanova
WEST REGION
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 5 Purdue
With E’Twuan Moore, Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson, Purdue has a hard-working group that’s fun to watch, and has an excellent young coach in Matt Painter. Given this group of sophomores likely will be back next year, they should enter the 2009-10 season as a team to watch in the national title race.
That being said, their 2008-09 season should end tonight. Despite the allegations in the damning report by Yahoo! Sports about the recruiting of Nate Miles, Connecticut should be more than ready to step on the court for tonight’s game, and should, before long, establish their dominance. The Boilermakers simply cannot match up with the Huskies’ formidable front line of Stanley Robinson, Jeff Adrien and 7-foot-3 monster Haseem Thabeet.
Combine those three with the leadership of A.J. Price, and the Huskies should once again find themselves in a regional final.
The pick: Connecticut
No. 2 Memphis vs. No. 3 Missouri
This could be the most entertaining game of the night, despite the fact that viewers will probably know the least about the two teams involved. Despite playing the majority of the season outside of the national spotlight, these are two of the most fun teams to watch in the country.
Memphis, behind freshman phenom Tyreke Evans at the point and the bruising tandem of Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart inside, can run the floor and plays great defense. Despite not being tested since before the Conference USA regular season, they are one of the most physically gifted teams in the nation.
Missouri, meanwhile, is one of the great success stories in college basketball. Coach Mike Anderson runs the same “40 minutes of hell” style employed by Nolan Richardson, whom Anderson worked for as an assistant, when he won a national title at Arkansas. They, too, are very athletic, and the combination of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons should give Memphis fits.
That said, despite the great story Missouri has put together this season, I expect Memphis to find a way to win. Evans will undoubtedly have trouble with Missouri’s pressing style, but because of the experience edge on the sidelines with John Calipari and the success Dozier and Taggart have had (two straight Final Four appearances) tips the scales slightly to Memphis. However it turns out, it ought to be fun to watch.
The pick: Memphis
Overall tournament record: 36-12
